Believe it or not I have been struggling to find good data to show what kind of potential Shadow Inventory we may be seeing down the road for Minnesota, and more specifically the Twin Cities metro region. The Shadow Inventory is theoretical in nature and estimates vary greatly, so trustworthy sources are important as well.
I was able to find some information from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve for the 2nd Quarter of 2011. I would imagine the 3rd Quarter should be coming out sometime soon and I will keep on a lookout for that report.
In the meantime, I will share some of the information in this 2nd Quarter 2011 report on Minnesota. The report was sort of lacking on details for the Twin Cities region, but it is a start… I am in search of actual numbers of homes or mortgages, so if you happen to know where those can be found please let me know.
The highest levels of foreclosures are just north of the Twin Cities in Isanti and Mille Lacs Counties.
Below breaks it down by Zip code, which is little more helpful. Hennepin County seems to have the highest concentration in the northeast corner of the County. What I am really interested in, getting my hands are the raw numbers of mortgages by Zip Code… Haven’t found them yet, but this is at least getting closer.
This chart is a little more telling on the what we might expect in the way of Shadow Inventory for all of Minnesota. It appears to be coming down substantially from last year, but still a fairly large wave. Judging by the national reports, this has probably come down even further in the 3rd quarter.
Several questions remain: How many of these delinquencies will end up in foreclosure? Are they are already for sale on the MLS and already factored into our supply? And, Will this wave continue to shrink?
I guess like any good research, it leaves us with more questions than we started with….
- Delinquencies Rise, Foreclosures Fall in Latest MBA Mortgage Delinquency Survey (craigkamman.wordpress.com)
- Shadow inventory falls, expected to continue (georgegmiller.wordpress.com)
- Mortgage Delinquencies Increase (blogs.wsj.com)
- Shadow Inventory of Homes Improves – S&P (johnmurphyreports.com)