The S&P Housing Views Blog has an interesting post today about the Existing Home Sales Flat lining. Their Article got me curious about how the Twin Cities did by comparison.
Existing home sales, have they flatlined?
DECEMBER 1 – 12:34 PM
Measured by the number of closed transactions, existing home sales have largely stalled over the several years. The chart below clearly illustrates how sales slowed down over the past four years and quite dramatically in the summer of 2011 (the rightmost data observations on the blue and red lines) versus their historic past. The latest data are for September 2011, released with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices on November 29th.
After you have read their charts, the chart from our Twin Cities market will make more sense.
I am drawing a slightly different conclusion on our marketplace than their charts. We went through the big decline from late 2005 through late 2008 like the National stats show. Where we differ is we continued the decline after the Tax Credits expired and haven’t really picked up as much as he National average has. This would explain the sharper declines we have been posting on he Case Shiller Index. The question that it leaves is why our market hasn’t begun to balance out. We have a low unemployment rate and we have conflicting data on the Households and Population in the Twin Cities. So if we assume the Population and Households is relatively stable here, the only thing left to conclude would be that we are actually going through the market correction quicker and positioning ourselves for a healthier market.
What do you think explains our Market vs. the National stats?
- Case Shiller Index, Minneapolis / St Paul market overcorrecting? (craigkamman.com)
- Twin Cities Weekly Real Estate Market Update for week ending Nov 19 2011 (craigkamman.com)