The numbers we were waiting for, Building Permits for Minneapolis / St Paul. These are the building permits for 1-Unit structures (single family homes) not seasonally adjusted.
February 2012 is about 22% year over year increase and 18% increase over January 2012. These are great numbers, but we are not yet out of the woods on this. Take a look at the graph below to see how this looks in the overall picture, still bouncing along the bottom.. There is reason for optimism with the low inventory of homes for sale in the Twin Cities – this will put additional demand on new housing units.
It is hard to predict the future, if we look at just the existing inventory and the current pace of pending sales – it would be tempting to call this the bottom. We still have a lot of headwinds including; increasing gas prices, food prices straining family budgets, troubles in Europe that could send the economy into a downturn, added regulations in the mortgage business and to top it all off – it is an election year. There is also the Shadow Inventories, although I am not overly concerned about this as a factor this year. With all the unknowns out there, I will venture to guess we will see a small increase in building permits – but not much upward movement on house prices. Even if there is huge demand for new homes, the builders would have a difficult time meeting the demand with the lack of funding available from banks. This will work its way out, but it will take time. Hopefully I am completely wrong and the housing market takes off this year..
2011-01-01 157 2011-02-01 190 2011-03-01 234 2011-04-01 285 2011-05-01 349 2011-06-01 394 2011-07-01 367 2011-08-01 391 2011-09-01 366 2011-10-01 375 2011-11-01 311 2011-12-01 286 2012-01-01 202 2012-02-01 245
- Building Permits and Starts – Midwest Region (craigkamman.com)
- Housing Starts decline slightly in February (calculatedriskblog.com)
- Homebuilding permits returning in top foreclosure states (housingwire.com)