McMansions: back by popular demand

A luxury home in a small town

A luxury home in a small town (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

“Death of the McMansions“, “home buyers want higher quality-smaller homes” has been the mantra for awhile.  While that makes great headlines and great “feel-good” writing, the truth is something entirely different.

The housing boom and easy financing lead to the home sizes increasing, as the homes got larger the nickname “McMansions” was created.  The nickname is not meant as a compliment to these larger homes, but rather an insult.  I believe much of the criticism about larger home sizes stems more from jealousy than anything else.   There are however some good arguments made for smaller homes, but the consumers are not choosing those homes.

If you asked any of the home owners who live in these “so-called” McMansions, I doubt you will find any one of them that believe they live in a McMansion and you would probably find a number of them that are “against McMansions”.  It is all relative perception…

Home Sizes Shrinking?

There was a trend during the housing crash that the average home size was getting smaller, and that is where the bandwagon of reporting started from.  Certainly these decisions are made out of environmental concern and higher consciousness for energy efficiency.   I contended that the consumers are value shoppers, and size is one of the perceptions of value.  It appears as if I my beliefs are being proven correct.

I categorize the consumers perception of value as weighing these 3 factors against the pricing when shopping for a home.

  1.  Location (school district, commute, family)
  2.  Size (raw square footage)
  3.  Feature/Finishes (built-ins, upgrades,technology, etc)
The home size square footage I was beginning to quantify this in Market Studies I was running for local home builders.  The new homes that were selling all had 1 thing in common, larger finished square footage than the homes that were not selling.

In Minnesota most homes have full basements, this is primarily because of our frost levels in winter require our footings to be at least 42″ below grade – therefore it is not that much more money to add a full basement.  Where we are seeing home builders providing “value” in our local market is by adding the finished square footage in the basement.  This is relatively inexpensive square footage to add.  The other area local builders are providing Size value is in bonus rooms over the garages.   This area already has a roof and footings, so it is cost effective square footage to add.  We are also seeing a trend away from the 2 story open foyer and that space is being utilized as living space now.

Courtesy of Builder, US Census Bureau data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Builder published a great article on home sizes beating me on timing, but delivering some awesome content.  At Builder Online they are onto this trend of larger home sizes.  So I referenced some of their content.

Between 2010 and 2011, average new, single-family home sizes spiked to 2,522 square feet—larger than during the height of the boom, leaving the industry wondering whether smaller homes were ever truly in vogue or if they were simply a necessity due to tight credit, high unemployment, and a lack of equity.

Read Full Article from Builder 

Why do consumers prefer larger homes?

We as Americans like to dream big, and our homes are among our biggest dreams.  Family sizes are not getting larger, yet our need for larger homes is growing.  Much of this is the amount of stuff we own.

Personally I own so much stuff that I can hardly function.  I try to get rid of stuff, but more stuff keeps piling up.  It just somehow magically accumulates on me.  I am not the only one with this dilemma…  We live in an age where there are cheap products readily available for impulse purchase.

Think about 2 generations ago. ..  My  Grandfather probably owned about 4 days worth of clothing – today that number is probably 10 fold.  He didn’t have an “entertainment center”, let alone a television, no computer or home office, no charging stations for iPads, iPhones, and gizmos, no rec room, craft or hobby rooms.  He and his family of 8 lived comfortably in 900 square feet.  Today I couldn’t fit all my iPads, iPhones, Computers, Printers, TVs into 900 square feet…  Unless the economy goes back to more of “survival basics” – I don’t see the home sizes shrinking…

Right or wrong, it is reality.

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2011 Annual Real Estate Report, part 1

Minneapolis – Saint Paul

Image via Wikipedia

The data has been compiled by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors for 2011.  This is their year end report.  To keep things simple, I am going to post this in a series  of posts rather than trying to explain the entire report at once.

The “Quick Facts” are that New Listings have been trending down since 2007 while Pending Sales are not showing much of a trend,  they are up from Last Year however.

I don’t think the “Top 5″ really tell us anything – let’s look at Excelsior for example:

Excelsior had a 15.6% Increase in New Listings and a 141.7% Increase in Pending Sales.  What does that really mean?  With only the percentages, it tells us really nothing to draw any conclusions from – except to give us the ‘heads up’ to take a closer look at those areas.

Below shows the Closed Sales increased by 8.2% in 2011 and Inventory dropped substantially by 28.7%.  This is a nice steady decline of inventory over time.

We had experienced the news throughout 2011 on the median and average price drops including how the Twin Cities lead in some of the largest price drops in the nation.  I still believe this is part of the market correction, and we are actually getting to the bottom of the market quicker and will therefore recover quicker.  The Home Buyer Tax credit just prolonged the market correction, now that it was removed – 2011 allowed us to finish the correction.  2012 may be the year we begin to see the prices increase, other say it may not be until 2014 – 2015.  Right now it looks like with inventory levels that prices should stabilize this year, possibly seeing price increase in certain areas within the Twin Cities.

Below shows us the Days on Market and % of List Price Received.  2011 was a year of Distressed Sales, 50% of the market to be exact up 13% from 2010.   Obviously, distressed sales brought in lower sale prices…

 

 

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Minneapolis St Paul Unemployment Rate (Jan 04 2012 release)

The unemployment figures for Minneapolis / St Paul MN were released  from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for November 2011.  The rate has nudged down to 5.1%, which is fantastic.  However, we should be less concerned about the rate and more about the number of jobs.  We can compare both graphs to draw our conclusions – it is the same data represented in 2 different ways – but they tend to draw 2 different conclusions.  Funny how numbers can do that..

Looks like a great Recovery.  However, if we look at the number of Jobs – it paints a different picture.

The explanation of this is in the way the Unemployment Rate is calculated, if you “give up” looking for work – you are no longer counted in the unemployment rate.   Either way – the trend is that we are adding jobs in the Twin Cities, even though we have a long way to go yet..

View Data from MN Deed.

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The Nation's 11th Largest Mortgage lender is getting out of the business due to excessive regulations

Image representing MetLife as depicted in Crun...

Image via CrunchBase

WOW!  This puts things into perspective a bit.  We all complain about the banks on their underwriting and that they are “not lending” now.  I knew they were pummeled with new regulations but had no idea to what extent.

The nation’s 11th largest mortgage servicer and 13th largest mortgage originator is getting out of the business due to excessive regulations according to HousingWire.  If a company can walk away from a$115.9billion servicing business it has to be bad…

MetLife Bank, a division of insurer MetLife Inc. (MET: 31.75 0.00%), is selling the bank’s mortgage business, citing uncertainty in the marketplace and a regulatory environment that requires excessive resources.

…In 2010, MetLife Home Loans ranked as the 11th largest mortgage servicer in the U.S., with its servicing business valued at $115.9 billion in the fourth quarter. The company also ranked 13th on the list of mortgage originators, holding 1.4% of the market and originating roughly $22 billion in mortgages last year.

Read Full Article

 

This not the direction we should be heading in to improve the housing market.  Having more banks lending would be helpful, not banks walking away from the business…

 

Related articles

RealtyTrac: Foreclosures on Slow Burn, August 2011

RealtyTrac released this news this evening.  There was no mention of Minnesota in the report, however we are still running middle of the pack in their foreclosure heat map.

The report talks about how foreclosure activity has been slowly declining but they are expecting it to pick back up as banks will want to move the next wave through the system.

“U.S. foreclosure activity has been mired down  since October of last year, when the robo-signing controversy sparked a flurry  of investigations into lender foreclosure procedures and paperwork,” said James  Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While foreclosure activity in  September and the third quarter continued to register well below levels from a  year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to  change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up.

“Third quarter foreclosure activity increased  marginally from the previous quarter, breaking a trend of three consecutive  quarterly decreases that started in the fourth quarter of 2010,” Saccacio  continued. “This marginal increase in overall foreclosure activity was fueled  by a 14 percent jump in new default notices, indicating that lenders are  cautiously throwing more wood into the foreclosure fireplace after spending months  trying to clear the chimney of sloppily filed foreclosures.”

Read Full Report

RealtyTrac Foreclosure Heat Index Map

RealtyTrac Foreclosure Heat Index Map Minnesota

RealtyTrac Foreclosure Activity Counts

Hennepin County has 973 foreclosures according to RealtyTrac, they break that down further with the housing units to foreclosure ratio of 1 in every 520 housing units.  (quick math in my head 1 / 520 = .19% ?  is that right?  )I really wish we had a historical perspective on the foreclosure rate as a benchmark…

Still trying get a grasp on this phantom “Shadow Inventory” and what kind of numbers we are looking at for the Twin Cities…

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Update. Week Ending Oct 1, 2011

Still heading the right direction!  The 30 year fixed rate mortgage dipped below 4% for the first time ever last week which should hopefully improve the market conditions.

For the Week Ending October 1st we saw a continued weaning of inventory with fewer year over year new listings and increased Pending sales.

New Listings  decreased 21.0% to 1,219

Pending Sales increased to 32.7% to 926

Inventory decreased 22.8% to 23,177

The inventory will continue to come down in it’s seasonal pattern, but year over year we are still down.  If you look at the chart below you can see that we are in the range of the 2005 inventory levels.

I am going to stick my neck out on this one and “Call it”.  We have just entered “Balanced Market” territory.  We have now dipped below 7 month supply which puts us on the upper edge of a Balanced Market.   As far as staying in this territory is whole other matter…

In a Balanced Market we should see sale prices holding closer to the asking prices giving us some price stability.  To see prices increase we are going to need demand to kick up a few notches to bring us into the Seller’s Market of 1-4 month supply.  But after the last few years, this is great news.

View Full Report from Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors

 

 




		

Chart of the Day: Housing Starts vs. Unemployed

Sometimes a Picture is worth a thousand words…  This one speaks volumes.

click to enlarge

Linked from Captain Capitalism

Minneapolis/St Paul Residential Construction Employment

I was inspired to see what kind of data was available for the Twin Cities metropolitan area for the Construction Employment from a post on Calculated Risk.

The graph below shows the number of total construction payroll jobs in the U.S., including both residential and non-residential, since 1969.

Construction employment is down 2.175 million jobs from the peak in April 2006, but up 53 thousand this year through the September BLS report.

Unfortunately this graph is a combination of both residential and non-residential construction employment…

…Usually residential investment (and residential construction) lead the economy out of recession, and non-residential construction usually lags the economy. Because this graph is a blend, it masks the usual pickup in residential construction following previous recessions. Of course residential investment didn’t lead the economy this time because of the huge overhang of existing housing units.

Read Full Article

 

I decided to take a look at our Region’s Construction Employment.  Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Growth, MN Deed, breaks it down to Residential Construction.  The data here only goes back to 2005, but it paints a pretty good picture of our situation.

We had a peak Residential Construction Employment of 12,409 jobs in the Twin Cities metro area in July 2006, we have continually lost Residential Construction Jobs since.  We are down 58% to 5,157 Residential Construction Jobs as of August 2011.  Keep in mind, the impact goes a LOT deeper into the economy than this figure.  Think about all the auxiliary business that is created with new housing; appliances, building materials, landscaping, financing, decorating, the list goes on and on.

I am having difficulty drawing the same conclusion as CalculatedRisk based on this information. From our Region’s perspective, we are still bouncing on the bottom with no major improvement in Residential Construction employment. The key difference is that we are comparing Residential Construction Employment to their “Construction Employment”.

If we look at the similar data they are using, we can see that in the Chart below.  This is the  seasonally adjusted construction Employment for Minnesota, includes greater Minnesota. The construction employment gains do not appear to be coming from the Residential sector at this time.

Are we at the bottom?  I believe we are, but I also believe we will be “Catfishing” or “bouncing” along the bottom for a while longer.

 

Twin Cities Metro Area's Pent Up Demand, Census Demographics projecting future housing demand.

After reading the National Association of Realtor’s article about the 15 to 19 age bracket and their housing needs, in my previous post.  It got me to think about our Region’s demographics and I was curious about some “ballpark” estimates on future housing demand in the Twin Cities area.

What kind of numbers are we talking about for the 15 to 19 age group and the 20 to 24 age group?  Here is the 2010 Census Chart on Age/Sex of the 7 County Twin Cities Region.

The 20 to 24 and the 25 to 29 age groups have been hit really hard by unemployment and have largely been left out of the housing market.  Let’s run some assumptions based on the 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 age groups.

Here are the numbers broken down for the age groups.

 


The 15 to 19 age group consists of 193,289 people in the 2010 Census for the Twin Cities Metro area.  We can’t assume that all of them will need housing; some will relocate out of State, some will get married, some will choose renting over owning and some will stay home with Mom and Dad.  So I am going to run with 50% of them will need housing,  it is just an arbitrary percentage I pulled out of thin air – maybe it is too high or too low but it is a nice round number.   So 50% of 193,280 of the 15 to 19 age group would be 96,644 housing units.  This will be over a period of let’s say 10 years for easy math and enough time for those age groups to enter the housing market, they would need  9,664 housing units per year.

If we look at the 20 to 24 age groups at 190,135 people, using the same 50% ratio we come up with 95,067.  Over the next 10 years would be 9,506 housing unit per year.

Looking at the 25 to 29 age group gets a little trickier to guess the numbers.  This is the age group that should begin to enter the housing market but with the economy many in this age group have been stuck.  If we were to run the same ratios we would come up with 110,383 housing units and over 10 years would be 11,038 per year.  I don’t really like those ratios on this age group, because some have entered the housing market by taking advantage of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.  So for these purposes I am going to leave them out of this projection even though there is a fairly large number here that will enter the housing market.

So just looking at people age 15 to 24 we have a grand total of 191,712 housing units or 19,171 housing units a year.  Considering we have approx 24,000 housing units for sale, this could put a lot of pressure on the supply / demand ratio.   Remember, we have already accounted for the marriages and moving out the region in these figures. We haven’t taken into account the deaths and migration in this ballpark estimate, so it is not a figure I would use to do any serious forecasting with.

This estimate does however show us the “Pent Up Demand” that needs to be un-lodged , the only way to un-lodge this pent-up demand is to get these age groups Jobs.

Greater MSP organization, bringing economic growth to the Twin Cities region

Apparently we are not the first to realize that our region’s employment situation has been grim and the repercussions of losing jobs can be devastating including population decline.

There is an organization that has been created to try to promote and bring employers to the Twin Cities metro area.  It is called Greater MSP.  

My first reaction to this was “oh no, not another ‘do nothing’ organization siphoning tax dollars”.  As I read further into it, this may hold some merit.  They have managed to pull together a pretty impressive board of directors to manage the organization; at least their credentials are a lot better than mine.  There are a number of  business leaders on this board that should know what is needed and how to achieve it.  The organizations visions and goals line up with what I believe our region needs to focus on:

Vision for a Brighter Future for All

The GREATER MSP Partnership is committed to stimulating economic growth and prosperity in the Minnesota’s 13-county Minneapolis Saint Paul metro area. As a public-private partnership funded by charitable donations, its vision is to be a value-added resource to all economic development organizations in the Greater MSP region. Its goal: a brighter future for all Twin Cities residents and businesses.

Strategic Direction

The Partnership works with dozens of economic development partners at the state and regional levels. It provides vision, strategy, resources and staff support to governments and organizations involved with job creation, regional marketing, business recruitment and business retention. Specifically, the GREATER MSP Partnership leads or partners with existing organizations to:

  • Set a strategic vision for regional economic development
  • Define and guide a tactical economic development agenda
  • Brand and market the Greater MSP region to internal and external audiences
  • Retain and expand current businesses in the region
  • Attract new businesses to the region
  • Connect businesses with local resources and incentives

 

I heard about this organization from Minneapolis St Paul Business Journal that wrote a short article about the new organization and their kick-off event coming up.

The organization will be holding a big kick-off event Tuesday evening at the Pantages Theater in downtown Minneapolis where invited guests and media will learn more about the region’s new “brand and marketing campaign” and hear about how Greater MSP will help recruit companies to the region.

Read Full Article

Let’s hope their efforts produce results, our region needs economic growth.  Take a moment to visit their website and let’s support their efforts any way we can.  They are running all this  from Charitable Donations according to their website.

The views expressed on this blog are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of my Broker, Edina Realty.