The National Association of Realtors published their re-benchmarking of home sales at 10am EST today. The results are little more of a swing than I anticipated but in line with what they were indicating.
Chart from NAR – read full report
The re-benchmarking brought the home sales down each year between 11% and 16%. So the housing downturn was more severe than they were initially indicating.
I will be working on compiling more data from this. But for now, here is how they are re-benchmarking methodology will be working.
The NAR re-benchmarked EHS estimates are based on the Census Bureau’s American
Community Survey (ACS) 1-year estimates. The ACS 1-year estimate is an annual housing
survey based on a rolling sample of approximately 3 million households. NAR also reviewed the
use of public records data, working with Lender Processing Services Applied Analytics (LPS).
Although the re-benchmarking approach based on ACS data was found to be preferable at this
time, it is expected that an increasing use of public records data may be appropriate in the future
as data coverage and accuracy increase and we reconcile varying EHS estimates available from
various public records data providers.
Based on the re-benchmarking effort, downward revisions to annual EHS estimates from
the re-benchmarking process averaged 14 percent for the 2007-2010 time periods. Figures 2 and
3 illustrate previously reported annual EHS and the re-benchmarked EHS.
Read Full Report and Methodology from NAR
You will recall from my earlier post how I referenced CalculatedRisk’s blog on their postings about the errors contained in the ACS. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the NAR home sales figures.
More to come…