Minneapolis Case Shiller Index

The S&P Case Shiller Index for Minneapolis, MN inched up last month to 119.77 from 119.38.  A small gain but a steady increase for 2012.

2012-04-01  116.45
2012-05-01  117.12
2012-06-01  118.43
2012-07-01  119.38
2012-08-01  119.77



 

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Minneapolis Case Shiller Index

April 2012 Case Shiller Index was released today from Standard & Poors.  The Minneapolis market posted about a 1% drop from January to February.  This index has a lag time involved, so the data for April is actually February’s figures.

Given the lag time here, this is not an accurate index for current market conditions but a great source for tracking historical trends.  Given the nature of the current marketplace with low inventory and multiple offer situations – we will begin to see the Case Shiller index numbers track upwards in the coming months for Minneapolis.

It is remarkable that we are not that far off from October 2000′s index for Minneapolis.

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FHFA Home Price Index for Minnesota Dec 2011

The FHFA updated their Home Price Index figures for Minnesota last Friday.  With all the confusion going on with which numbers are trustworthy or not, and the fact that I am not overly trusting of this data – I wasn’t sure if I should post it or not.

With the question of the NAR figures, it is probably more important to keep an eye on multiple sources, so I added the Case Shiller composite 20 index along side it.

Generally speaking, they track fairly close, unfortunately we are comparing Apples to Oranges here.  Minnesota vs. the Composite 20 from 2 different sources, but it is just a benchmark…  According to the FHFA home price index, Minnesota’s home prices are increasing.  This is highly suspect in mind as it goes against the raw MLS data from the Twin Cities region, which should account for a very large portion of the Minnesota sales..

Before I disregard this source, I do believe even with its flaws – it has its purposes.  This is not a great benchmark for tracking the market especially in real-time, primarily because it is a quarterly index.  However, it is probably a great source to view historical trends and the “larger picture”.

 

 

Draw an imaginary trend line from 1975 to today.  In theory that is where home prices will ultimately be.  We are getting close..

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St. Thomas real estate analysis of traditional-sale home prices shows one-third the decline indicated by Case-Shiller

University of St. Thomas (Minnesota)
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The University of St. Thomas in St Paul has been doing some pretty interesting studies on the real estate market.  They have come out with their own Index to compare against Case Shiller.  They posted a comparison between Foreclosure Sales,  Short Sales, and Traditional against the Case Shiller Index for the Twin Cities.  It paints a pretty good picture on the local market place.

The median sale price for a nonforeclosed home in the 13-county Twin Cities market has fallen considerably less than the median price for all homes reported by the widely used Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index, according to figures released today by the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas’ Opus College of Business.

…The Case-Shiller index does not distinguish between a traditional, normal market sale and a distressed sale. The St. Thomas index provides data for all sales, but in addition it distinguishes between traditional sales, short sales (homes sold for a price less than the outstanding mortgage balance), and sales where the home’s mortgage has been foreclosed.

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Without looking into their methodology and just looking at their chart.  It appears they are indexing based off January 2005 where everything is set to 1,000.

Great information from the University of St Thomas.  Makes me wish I had attended there!

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Case Shiller Home Price Index 1890 – 2010 put to RollerCoaster video.

Came across this updated Roller Coaster to the home price index.  Similar to the infamous one done in 2007, this one takes us to 2010.

The original was adjusted for inflation, there is no mention if this one does or not.  I am not clear on how they obtained pricing index back to 1890, Case Shiller and FHFA didn’t exist  and I am not sure if they have indexed back that far – so I am not sure of the accuracy on it.  It is still a good representation of the real estate market…

 

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices – Minneapolis Home Price decline from Peak

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices..

This is a great chart showing the increase in home price by percentage for Cities, and the price decline by percentage from the Peak.

Great visual to see how Minneapolis/St Paul Twin Cities area did compared to the rest of the nation on the bubble and the burst.