I stumbled into this slideshow from AgBeat that looks like it originally came from WNYC.
This is a great map visualization of how the foreclosure wave swept across the Country like an epidemic. (hit play and watch !)
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A Map view of the Foreclosure epidemic
October 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment
RealtyTrac 2nd Qtr 2012 Foreclosure Report
August 31, 2012 By Leave a Comment
RealtyTrac’s 2nd Quarter 2012 Foreclosure Reports show declining foreclosures nationally.
Although foreclosure-related sales as a percentage of total sales increased, the raw number of foreclosure-related sales in the second quarter (224,429) decreased 12 percent from the previous quarter and was down 22 percent from the second quarter of 2011 — the first annual decrease in foreclosure-related sales after five quarters of increases.
According to the report, Foreclosure related sales account for 22% of the residential sales in Minnesota. This is in the higher bracket in the nation, certainly not the worst as California takes that spotlight with 43%. Below is RealtyTrac’s foreclosure “heat map” of the US, it is interactive so you can compare.
Aaron Dickenson makes his prediction on the future foreclosure activity based on pre-foreclosure data for the Twin Cities. He debunks the Shadow Inventory theory, which I agree with to a certain point. Where I differ in opinion is I don’t believe we are out of the woods on this yet. I base this on just economic conditions, primarily the employment situation.
Aaron Dickenson’s prediction
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Twin Cities Distressed Sales hit lowest share of market since 2008
July 16, 2012 By
Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors reports that the share of Distressed Sales is hitting multi-year lows.
This is worth the read – there are plenty of positive signals in the marketplace – this one seems to be going somewhat unnoticed.
Distressed sales accounted for 30.6 percent of all new listings and 34.6 percent of all closed sales, the lowest shares since June 2008 and August 2008, respectively.
Depleting this inventory will be huge help to full market recovery.
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RealtyTrac MidYear 2012 Foreclosure Report – 2nd wave coming?
July 12, 2012 By
RealtyTrac reported it’s First Half 2012 Foreclosure Report showing an increase in Foreclosure Starts for the first time since 2009. This could be the beginning of the Shadow Inventory or 2nd Wave of Foreclosures. It will be hard to say until we see if this becomes a trend or not.
Second Quarter Foreclosure Starts Increase Annually For First Time Since Q4 2009
California Foreclosure Starts Jump in June, Giving It Highest State Foreclosure RateJuly 12, 2012 – RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Midyear 2012 Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 1,045,801 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — in the first half of 2012, a 2 percent increase from the previous six months but still down 11 percent from the first half of 2011.
The report also shows that 0.79 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 126) had at least one foreclosure filing in the first six months of the year.
In the video below, Realty Trac explains the report in more detail. The one key point I would like to point out that he mentions in the video – the housing market can not fully recover until we deal with all the distressed properties. On the brighter side, there was no mention of Minnesota in this report.
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Delinquency Rates on Single Family Mortgages, updated 05/23/12
May 24, 2012 By
The Federal Reserve published the data on the Delinquency Rates on Single Family Mortgages. Data ends at 01/01/2012, and still hovering just above 10% at 10.18%.
We are not out of the woods yet judging by this… This is way beyond “bad mortgages” and into the harsh reality of people without jobs…
2008-01-01 3.68 2008-04-01 4.38 2008-07-01 5.24 2008-10-01 6.65 2009-01-01 7.82 2009-04-01 8.64 2009-07-01 9.65 2009-10-01 10.48 2010-01-01 11.19 2010-04-01 11.20 2010-07-01 10.83 2010-10-01 10.14 2011-01-01 10.30 2011-04-01 10.59 2011-07-01 10.23 2011-10-01 9.91 2012-01-01 10.18
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- LPS: Percent of delinquent mortgage loans declined in March (calculatedriskblog.com)
- Federal Reserve : Lack Of Congressional Direction Slowing Mortgage Lending (themortgagereports.com)
- Federal Reserve Meeting Poses Risk To Mortgage Rates (themortgagereports.com)
2011 Twin Cities year end Distressed Sales snapshot
January 23, 2012 By
Image by niallkennedy via Flickr
2011 may have marked the bottom of the real estate market in the Twin Cities, or at least we hope so. The Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors 2011 year-end report is out and this is the report on the Distressed Sales for 2011.
An astonishing 50% of the properties sold in 2011 were Distressed, meaning Short Sales or Foreclosures. It is little wonder why the Median Sales Price seemed to plummet in the Twin Cities in 2011.
The top area for distressed market share were primarily the “exurbs”. A couple of theories for this might be, those areas may have a lot of the Trades people there – carpenters, HVAC, roofers, drywallers etc. The housing industry was hit hard, and so were the Trades people’s income as a result. The price of gasoline soaring also might have played a role in this making the commute less desirable. I don’t believe those areas were subject to any different loans than the other areas, but I could be wrong.
Below shows us a better picture of the Median Sales Price plummet we kept reading about from Case Shiller and other home price indexes. A brutal -33.3% drop in median sales price over the last 4 years. If you break this apart by sale type like MAAR did here, it makes a little more sense. Traditional Sales median prices are down -14.1% over the same 4 year period while Short Sales are down -29.3% and Foreclosures median prices down -32.5%.
This reflective of Condition of the Home as well as the bargaining position of the buyers. I don’t expect 2012 will be nearly as bad, as I expect we will work off more foreclosures and begin to see prices stabilize. There are areas in the Twin Cities that may begin to see prices increase this year.
Read Full Report from MAAR
Related articles
- St. Thomas real estate analysis of traditional-sale home prices shows one-third the decline indicated by Case-Shiller (craigkamman.com)
- 2011 Annual Real Estate Report, part 1 (craigkamman.com)
- Distressed Real Estate: Down to 28 Percent of the Market (economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org)
MN Shadow Inventory: Realty Trac Foreclosure Report, Year End 2011
January 13, 2012 By
Realty Trac’s 2011 Year End Foreclosure Report is out. Foreclosures are down 34%, the lowest annual level since 2007. Again we get back National Statistics vs. local market information.
IRVINE, Calif. – Jan. 12, 2012 – RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Year-End 2011 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows a total of 2,698,967 foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 1,887,777 U.S. properties in 2011, a decrease of 34 percent in total properties from 2010. Foreclosure activity in 2011 was 33 percent below the 2009 total and 19 percent below the 2008 total.
Realty Trac does a pretty good job on breaking down these numbers locally. Below we can look at their “foreclosure heat map” and compare Minnesota with the rest of the Nation. We (Minnesota), appear to be in the middle of the pack of foreclosures according to their map. 2,625 Foreclosures or 1 in every 889 Housing Units. Compare that to Illinois, 1 in every 419 housing units or Nevada (1 in every 177 housing units).
Keep in mind the below maps are just December 2011 Foreclosures divided the by the number housing units (based on the most recent estimate from the US Census). These maps were not part of their 2011 Year End Report. When I first looked at this I thought ” wow! we can easily absorb 2,625 housing units!” – but that is just Dec 2011′s figures.. I have yet to find a reliable estimate on the local “Shadow Inventory” – this at least gives us a benchmark on where we are at compared to the rest of the nation.
Maps are interactive:
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- RealtyTrac: Bank seizures of homes fell to four year low in 2011 due to process issues (calculatedriskblog.com)
- Foreclosures Down in December, but Trend May Not Last (builderonline.com)
- RealtyTrac reports 14% dip in foreclosures, but new wave expected (housingwire.com)
Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages, updated Dec 6th, 2011
December 6, 2011 By
The St Louis Federal Reserve Bank updated their “Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages” today, December 6, 2011.
We have been enjoying watching the decline of our current inventory, yet this is an ominous sign of more inventory to come. I suspect a number of these are currently represented in the MLS stats, but not all of them. It is difficult to get my head around the fact that according to the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank there are 10.23% of the Mortgages that are delinquent. This is nationally of course.
Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked In Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks (DRSFRMACBS)
(Seasonally Adjusted)
Here is some of the data that shows how rapidly the delinquency rate climbed and how it hovers above 10%.
2006-07-01 1.76 2006-10-01 1.95 2007-01-01 2.03 2007-04-01 2.30 2007-07-01 2.78 2007-10-01 3.07 2008-01-01 3.68 2008-04-01 4.39 2008-07-01 5.25 2008-10-01 6.62 2009-01-01 7.84 2009-04-01 8.66 2009-07-01 9.65 2009-10-01 10.41 2010-01-01 11.23 2010-04-01 11.25 2010-07-01 10.83 2010-10-01 10.04 2011-01-01 10.36 2011-04-01 10.65 2011-07-01 10.23
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- MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline slightly in Q3 (calculatedriskblog.com)
- 3rd Quarter Local Market Reports: Delinquency Rates (economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org)
- Delinquencies on commercial, multifamily mortgages decline (housingwire.com)
Minnesota’s Shadow Inventory, Ground Hog day – can you see our Shadow?
November 29, 2011 By
Image via Wikipedia
The National Association of Realtors, NAR, put together a great piece on the Shadow Inventory that finally gives us relatively trustworthy numbers for Shadow Inventory in Minnesota.
If you are not familiar with what Shadow Inventory is, it is the number of homes about to go into foreclosure or in the midst of foreclosure that are not represented on the current MLS statistics. This has been an ominous “shadow” over the housing market as there are speculations on the size of this inventory ranging all over the map.
From NAR’s estimates, Minnesota is running about in the middle of the pack to the higher end for Shadow Inventory. This differs from my belief that we were going to be on the low side of the scale.
What does this mean? One way to explain this might be to say, we are GroundHogs and popped our heads out and we just saw our Shadow (shadow inventory) which means, there is another 11months of housing market winter.
Before we all begin to panic, keep in mind a couple things. 1) This is research done by Economists. 2) Economists are slightly less accurate than Weathermen.
Month supply can change drastically by sales picking up pace, i.e. if you have 11 houses for sale and you sold 1 in the last 30 days – you have an 11 month supply of inventory. Now let’s say the next month you sold 2 houses with 10 houses left for sale – you just dropped down to a 5 month supply of inventory. It is more of a barometer on the pace sales.
This is a great report and is worth your time to review it. I just covered a couple highlights of this short report.
Read Full Foreclosure Inventory Report from NAR
Related articles
- Visible Existing Home Inventory declines 17% year-over-year in November (calculatedriskblog.com)
- S&P: 45 months to clear shadow inventory (housingwire.com)
- Distressed Inventory Slowly Diminishing (economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org)
October Foreclosures Rise according to RealtyTrac Survey
November 10, 2011 By
Foreclosure ticked up 7.36% in October from September according to RealtyTrac, yet it remains lower than October 2010. During the same period the Average Sale Price of Foreclosure rose 5.67%. The increase in Foreclosures is expected because of the bottle neck of foreclosures held up because of ”robo-signing” mess. This is the beginning of the “Shadow Inventory” we have been discussing.
These are National Stats, so below let’s take a look at the “heat map” of Minnesota Foreclosures. It doesn’t give us the quantity of mortgage foreclosures, but it gives us a geographical area where home values may be hit the hardest. For further information, check out RealtyTrac.
Below are embedded graphs from RealtyTrac (you may have to refresh this page a couple of times to get them to connect.)
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- Foreclosures Up in October, but Default Notices Drop in Nevada (blogs.wsj.com)
- Foreclosures jump 7% in October from September (marketwatch.com)
