RealtyTrac 2nd Qtr 2012 Foreclosure Report

August 31, 2012 By Leave a Comment

RealtyTrac’s 2nd Quarter 2012 Foreclosure Reports show declining foreclosures nationally.

Although foreclosure-related sales as a percentage of total sales increased, the raw number of foreclosure-related sales in the second quarter (224,429) decreased 12 percent from the previous quarter and was down 22 percent from the second quarter of 2011 — the first annual decrease in foreclosure-related sales after five quarters of increases.

RealtyTrac 2nd Quarter Report

According to the report, Foreclosure related sales account for 22% of the residential sales in Minnesota.   This is in the higher bracket in the nation, certainly not the worst as California takes that spotlight with 43%.  Below is RealtyTrac’s foreclosure “heat map” of the US, it is interactive so you can compare.

 

Aaron Dickenson makes his prediction on the future foreclosure activity based on pre-foreclosure data for the Twin Cities.  He debunks the Shadow Inventory theory, which I agree with to a certain point.  Where I differ in opinion is I don’t believe we are out of the woods on this yet.  I base this on just economic conditions, primarily the employment situation.

Aaron Dickenson’s prediction

 

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MN Shadow Inventory: Realty Trac Foreclosure Report, Year End 2011

January 13, 2012 By

Realty Trac’s 2011 Year End Foreclosure Report is out.  Foreclosures are down 34%, the lowest annual level since 2007.   Again we get back National Statistics vs. local market information.

IRVINE, Calif. – Jan. 12, 2012 – RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Year-End 2011 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows a total of 2,698,967 foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 1,887,777 U.S. properties in 2011, a decrease of 34 percent in total properties from 2010. Foreclosure activity in 2011 was 33 percent below the 2009 total and 19 percent below the 2008 total.

Realty Trac does a pretty good job on breaking down these numbers locally.  Below we can look at their “foreclosure heat map” and compare Minnesota with the rest of the Nation.  We (Minnesota), appear to be in the middle of the pack of foreclosures according to their map. 2,625 Foreclosures or 1 in every 889 Housing Units.  Compare that to Illinois, 1 in every 419 housing units or Nevada (1 in every 177 housing units).

Keep in mind the below maps are just December 2011 Foreclosures divided the by the number housing units (based on the most recent estimate from the US Census).   These maps were not part of their 2011 Year End Report.  When I first looked at this I thought ” wow! we can easily absorb 2,625 housing units!” – but that is just Dec 2011′s figures..  I have yet to find a reliable estimate on the local “Shadow Inventory” – this at least gives us a benchmark on where we are at compared to the rest of the nation.

Maps are interactive:

Read Full Report from Realty Trac

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October Foreclosures Rise according to RealtyTrac Survey

November 10, 2011 By

Foreclosure ticked up 7.36% in October from September according to RealtyTrac, yet it remains lower than October 2010.  During the same period the Average Sale Price of Foreclosure rose 5.67%.  The increase in Foreclosures is expected because of the bottle neck of foreclosures held up because of  ”robo-signing” mess.  This is the beginning of the “Shadow Inventory” we have been discussing.

These are National Stats, so below let’s take a look at the “heat map” of Minnesota Foreclosures.  It doesn’t give us the quantity of mortgage foreclosures, but it gives us a geographical area where home values may be hit the hardest.  For further information, check out RealtyTrac.

Below are embedded graphs from RealtyTrac (you may have to refresh this page a couple of times to get them to connect.)

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RealtyTrac: Foreclosures on Slow Burn, August 2011

October 12, 2011 By

RealtyTrac released this news this evening.  There was no mention of Minnesota in the report, however we are still running middle of the pack in their foreclosure heat map.

The report talks about how foreclosure activity has been slowly declining but they are expecting it to pick back up as banks will want to move the next wave through the system.

“U.S. foreclosure activity has been mired down  since October of last year, when the robo-signing controversy sparked a flurry  of investigations into lender foreclosure procedures and paperwork,” said James  Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While foreclosure activity in  September and the third quarter continued to register well below levels from a  year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to  change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up.

“Third quarter foreclosure activity increased  marginally from the previous quarter, breaking a trend of three consecutive  quarterly decreases that started in the fourth quarter of 2010,” Saccacio  continued. “This marginal increase in overall foreclosure activity was fueled  by a 14 percent jump in new default notices, indicating that lenders are  cautiously throwing more wood into the foreclosure fireplace after spending months  trying to clear the chimney of sloppily filed foreclosures.”

Read Full Report

RealtyTrac Foreclosure Heat Index Map

RealtyTrac Foreclosure Heat Index Map Minnesota

RealtyTrac Foreclosure Activity Counts

Hennepin County has 973 foreclosures according to RealtyTrac, they break that down further with the housing units to foreclosure ratio of 1 in every 520 housing units.  (quick math in my head 1 / 520 = .19% ?  is that right?  )I really wish we had a historical perspective on the foreclosure rate as a benchmark…

Still trying get a grasp on this phantom “Shadow Inventory” and what kind of numbers we are looking at for the Twin Cities…

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Housing market hit bottom: former RealtyTrac exec. Catfish Recovery

September 30, 2011 By
Line art drawing of a Catfish

Image via Wikipedia, "our new housing market mascot"

Housing market hit bottom: former RealtyTrac exec.

Well, it’s official, we have hit bottom!  At least according to Rick Sharga, former RealtyTrac exec.

The U.S. housing market hit bottom this year and will remain flat until 2014, when it will start to slowly recover, said Rick Sharga, an executive vice president withCarrington Mortgage Holdings.

“We’re looking at a catfish recovery,” he told attendees at the Asian Real Estate Association of America conference in San Francisco Friday, saying the market will bump along the bottom for some time before starting to revive.

More than a million foreclosure actions that should have taken place this year have not yet moved forward, and that delay pushes a resolution of the housing market’s problems into next year and beyond, he said, citing data from RealtyTrac, where Sharga served as a senior vice presidentuntil this week.

Read Full Article

The article goes on to mention the shadow inventory problem holding recovery back along with anemic economic growth.

Of all the predictions so far, this sounds to me like the most realistic one.  But who knows, it is anyone’s guess at this point.

I do like his term “Catfish Recovery”, bumping along the bottom.  There is nothing quite like the ‘down home’ ‘common sense’ phrases..

 

 

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The Foreclosure log jam may be open..

September 15, 2011 By

RealtyTrac has a good video about the wave of new foreclosures coming down the pipeline. Minnesota has 2,403 New Foreclosures which is running about the middle of the road for the entire nation. Wisconsin posted 3,841 new foreclosures and Illinois posted 12,493 new foreclosures.
 

Time will tell… The shadow inventory is potentially large, but I am clinging to optimism that Minnesota’s judicial foreclosure system allowed us to clear much of our shadow inventory through short sales quicker than the other states. Which would in part explain why we have suffered some of the largest price declines in the nation to date. 

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Foreclosures spike in August

September 15, 2011 By
Half million dollar house in Salinas, Californ...

Image via Wikipedia

Foreclosures increased 33% from last month according to RealtyTrac.  A large amount of this is attributed to Bank of America.  There was a lawsuit filed claiming that the foreclosure process was fraudulent because they were using an “auto-signature” on paperwork, so that put a stop to a number of foreclosures.  It looks like those foreclosures are now being pushed through the system.  On the bright side, foreclosures are still 33% below  last year…

Mortgage servicers started the foreclosure process on more than 78,800 properties in August, a 33% increase from the month before and the highest monthly increase in four years, according to RealtyTrac…

…Overall filings, including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, reached 228,098 in August, up 7% from the previous month but still down 33% from last year.

Read Full Article from HousingWire

This is part of the “Shadow Inventory”.  There have been a number of estimates on how large this shadow inventory is. Call this blinding optimism on my part but I don’t believe the shadow inventory will hit the market in large numbers.   I will try to quantify my theory with some data in the coming weeks, but right now I speculate that the banks will work off the inventory with refinancing and short sales.   The banks are getting smarter at this and are realizing that they take a huge bath when they take the property back.  The foreclsoures are still a big problem until employment gets back up where people can meet their obligations again.

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The views expressed on this blog are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of my Broker.